addFeed( 1, [ { title:'SPC MD 398', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0398.html', description:'MD 0398 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
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Mesoscale Discussion 0398NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0528 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025Areas affected...parts of southern Missouri and southern IllinoisConcerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...Valid 042228Z - 050000ZThe severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118continues.SUMMARY...Storms north of the warm front may produce hail andperhaps some damaging gusts this evening, and a watch has beenissued.DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing to the north of a warmfront lifting slowly northward across parts of northern Arkansas,and a watch has been issued in this area. ACARS profiles from STLshow a strong surface stable layer north of the front that has beengetting shallower over time as it is eroded by a strongsouth-southwesterly low-level jet. Above the surface stable layer,ample buoyancy for hail production along with strong deep-layershear may support a hail risk. Additionally, with the stable layereroding with time, some downdrafts may be able to penetrate to thesurface to produce damaging gusts, given the strong flow aloft.However, poor lapse rates aloft and messy storm modes may limit boththe hail threat due to higher freezing levels and weaker updraftsand the wind threat due to weaker downdrafts...Supinie.. 04/04/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...LAT...LON   37049353 37389309 37859247 38129074 38388952 38448847            38318807 37938826 37379020 36819201 36699340 37049353 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more' }, { title:'SPC MD 399', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0399.html', description:'MD 0399 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 113... FOR NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN AR
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Mesoscale Discussion 0399NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0533 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025Areas affected...Northeast TX/Northwest LA into central/northern ARConcerning...Tornado Watch 113...Valid 042233Z - 050000ZThe severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113 continues.SUMMARY...Tornado potential, including a strong (EF2+) tornado risk,will be maximized through early evening across the ArkLaTex,especially across far northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas, whilealso increasing across north-central Arkansas. Tornado Watch 113continues until 9pm CDT/02z.DISCUSSION...Multiple intense supercells are ongoing at 525pmCDT/2225z across far northeast Texas and extreme southeastOklahoma/far southwest Arkansas, including a particularly intensesupercell with prior tornadic history in Upshur County about 25miles north of Longview. While the storm mode is complex, theenvironment remains highly favorable for tornadoes, potentiallyincluding a strong tornado risk amidst 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH andlower 70s F dewpoints with T/Td spreads of 10-15F. Farther north, semi-discrete supercells have intensified acrossnorth-central Arkansas, and this trend is likely to continue with anincreasing tornado potential across this region. This zone will beincreasingly influenced by a pronounced early-evening strengtheningof the low-level jet, with current surface observations of2.0-3.5mb/2-hourly pressure falls and dewpoints having recentlyincreased several degrees...Guyer.. 04/04/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...LAT...LON   32529383 32379522 34069442 36459263 35779096 32529383 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more' }, { title:'SPC MD 400', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0400.html', description:'MD 0400 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
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Mesoscale Discussion 0400NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0616 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025Areas affected...Portions of eastern KentuckyConcerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...Valid 042316Z - 050015ZThe severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117continues.SUMMARY...Threat for severe hail and damaging gusts continues acrosssevere thunderstorm Watch 117, though the threat is expected todiurnally wane.DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing north of the synopticstationary boundary. Boundary-layer flow has remained relativelyweak with neutral height tendencies leading to weak forcing. Despitethis, relatively steep lapse rates and deep convective profilescontinue to be supportive of a hail threat. Additionally, some driersurface air, particularly with eastern extent, may provide somenegative buoyancy for some weak downbursts that may produce damaginggusts. However, recent convective trends have been to weaken thestorms with the loss of diurnal heating, and storms should continueto wane in both coverage and intensity...Supinie.. 04/04/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LAT...LON   38188565 38128420 38058353 37878306 37528300 37148304            36808340 36718395 36688504 36818596 37228656 37778669            38128662 38228629 38188565 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118 Status Reports', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0118.html', description:'WW 0118 Status Updates
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 118SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SGF TO40 ESE SGF TO 5 SW VIH...LYONS..04/04/25ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...STATUS REPORT FOR WS 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC047-055-065-081-145-157-185-189-191-193-050040-IL .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREEDWARDS              FRANKLIN            HAMILTON            JEFFERSON            PERRY               RANDOLPH            WABASH               WASHINGTON          WAYNE               WHITE                MOC017-035-055-065-067-091-093-123-149-153-157-161-179-186-187-203-213-215-221-223-229-050040-MO .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBOLLINGER            CARTER              CRAWFORD            DENT                 DOUGLAS             HOWELL              IRON                 MADISON             OREGON              OZARK                PERRY               PHELPS              REYNOLDS             STE. GENEVIEVE      ST. FRANCOIS        SHANNON              TANEY               TEXAS               WASHINGTON           WAYNE               WRIGHT
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0118.html', description:'WW 118 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 042210Z - 050500Z
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSevere Thunderstorm Watch Number 118NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK510 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of   South Central Illinois  Southern Missouri* Effective this Friday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT.* Primary threats include...  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph likely  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely  A tornado or two possibleSUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will overspread the watch areathrough the evening, posing a risk of large hail and perhaps locallydamaging wind gusts.The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south ofSpringfield MO to 50 miles east of Mount Vernon IL. For a completedepiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions arefavorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threateningweather conditions and listen for later statements and possiblewarnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do producetornadoes.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW115...WW 116...WW 117...AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. Afew cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector24035....Hart
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117 Status Reports', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0117.html', description:'WW 0117 Status Updates
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 117SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW CSVTO 25 E LEX...LYONS..04/04/25ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...STATUS REPORT FOR WS 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-045-051-053-065-095-109-119-121-125-129-131-133-147-151-189-193-197-199-203-207-231-235-237-050040-KY .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBELL                 BREATHITT           CASEY               CLAY                 CLINTON             ESTILL              HARLAN               JACKSON             KNOTT               KNOX                 LAUREL              LEE                 LESLIE               LETCHER             MCCREARY            MADISON              OWSLEY              PERRY               POWELL               PULASKI             ROCKCASTLE          RUSSELL              WAYNE               WHITLEY             WOLFE                THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0117.html', description:'WW 117 SEVERE TSTM KY 042100Z - 050200Z
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSevere Thunderstorm Watch Number 117NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK500 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of   South central and southeast Kentucky* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until  1000 PM EDT.* Primary threats include...  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2    inches in diameter possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possibleSUMMARY...Isolated warm sector supercells will persist through theafternoon/evening with the potential to produce large hail of 1-2inches in diameter and isolated damaging gusts of 60-70 mph.The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwestof Bowling Green KY to 25 miles south southeast of Jackson KY. For acomplete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outlineupdate (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions arefavorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threateningweather conditions and listen for later statements and possiblewarnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do producetornadoes.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW115...WW 116...AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. Afew cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector25025....Thompson
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 116 Status Reports', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0116.html', description:'WW 0116 Status Updates
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 116SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DEQ TO10 N FYV...LYONS..04/04/25ATTN...WFO...TSA...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC047-131-050040-AR .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREFRANKLIN             SEBASTIAN           THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 116', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0116.html', description:'WW 116 TORNADO AR OK 042045Z - 050200Z
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 116NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK345 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Exteme west central Arkansas  Extreme east central Oklahoma* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until  900 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2    inches in diameter possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possibleSUMMARY...Supercells along a stalled front will move into the areaof east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas (close to FortSmith) just to the west of the earlier tornado watch to the east inArkansas.  A couple of tornadoes, including the chance for a strongtornado, large hail and wind damage will all be possible thisafternoon/evening before the storms shift farther east intoArkansas.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 20 statute mileseast and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Fort Smith AR to40 miles south southwest of Poteau OK. For a complete depiction ofthe watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNSWOU6).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW 115...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Meanstorm motion vector 22040....Thompson
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 114 Status Reports', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0114.html', description:'WW 0114 Status Updates
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 114SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE AUS TO30 NNW CLL TO 40 ESE CRS TO 35 NNE TYR...LYONS..04/04/25ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-041-051-185-225-289-313-455-471-050040-TX .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREANDERSON             BRAZOS              BURLESON            GRIMES               HOUSTON             LEON                MADISON              TRINITY             WALKER              THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 115', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0115.html', description:'WW 115 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN 041955Z - 050300Z
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 115NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Northeast Arkansas  Extreme southern Illinois  Western Kentucky  Southeast Missouri  Norhern Mississippi  Western and Middle Tennessee* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until  1000 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts    to 75 mph possible  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events    to 2 inches in diameter possibleSUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell development is expected thisafternoon from northern Mississippi across western/Middle Tennesseeinto western Kentucky.  The storm environment supports the potentialfor several tornadoes (including an isolated strong tornado), largehail up to 2 inches in diameter, and isolated damaging gusts.  Thepotential for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase later thisevening into early tonight as storm clusters spread into southeastMissouri from Arkansas.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute mileseast and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Paducah KYto 25 miles south southwest of Memphis TN. For a complete depictionof the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNSWOU5).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Meanstorm motion vector 24025....Thompson
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 115 Status Reports', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0115.html', description:'WW 0115 Status Updates
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 115SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OWBTO 30 ENE DYR TO 20 E MEM TO 35 ENE PBF...LYONS..04/04/25ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-095-111-123-042340-AR .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECLAY                 CRAIGHEAD           CRITTENDEN          CROSS                GREENE              LEE                 MISSISSIPPI          MONROE              POINSETT            ST. FRANCIS          ILC003-059-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-042340-IL .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALEXANDER            GALLATIN            HARDIN              JACKSON              JOHNSON             MASSAC              POPE                 PULASKI             SALINE              UNION                WILLIAMSON          KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-145-157-042340-KY
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 113', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0113.html', description:'WW 113 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 041755Z - 050200Z
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 113NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Southwest, central and northern Arkansas  Extreme northwest Louisiana  Extreme southeast Oklahoma  Northeast Texas* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until  900 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to    2.5 inches in diameter likely  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts    to 75 mph possibleSUMMARY...Supercell development is expected along a surface frontand into the warm sector this afternoon from northeast Texasnortheastward into Arkansas.  The storm environment will support thepotential for a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes, very large hail to2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts up to 75 mph as stormscongeal into multiple clusters later this afternoon.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute mileseast and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Flippin ARto 60 miles south southwest of Texarkana AR. For a completedepiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Meanstorm motion vector 23035....Thompson
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Tornado Watch 113 Status Reports', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0113.html', description:'WW 0113 Status Updates
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STATUS REPORT ON WW 113SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW TYR TO40 NNE TYR TO 20 SW DEQ TO 30 SSE RKR TO 15 SSW RKR...LYONS..04/04/25ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-089-091-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-133-135-137-141-145-147-149-042340-AR .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREARKANSAS             BAXTER              BOONE               CALHOUN              CLARK               CLEBURNE            CLEVELAND            COLUMBIA            CONWAY              DALLAS               FAULKNER            FULTON              GARLAND              GRANT               HEMPSTEAD           HOT SPRING           HOWARD              INDEPENDENCE        IZARD                JACKSON             JEFFERSON           JOHNSON              LAFAYETTE           LAWRENCE            LITTLE RIVER         LOGAN               LONOKE              MARION               MILLER              MONROE              MONTGOMERY           NEVADA              NEWTON              OUACHITA             PERRY               PIKE                POLK                 POPE                PRAIRIE             PULASKI              RANDOLPH            SALINE              SCOTT                SEARCY              SEVIER              SHARP                STONE               VAN BUREN           WHITE                WOODRUFF            YELL
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/', description:'SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025Valid 061200Z - 121200ZAn upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it movesover the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front willslide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsulaon Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from theMid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, withlingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions ofthe Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast,including much of Florida through next week as another upper-leveltrough and surface cold front are forecast to move through theregion. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flowover the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns fordownslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. Thesouthern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for theoutlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula...A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over theFlorida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approachingthe 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fireweather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditionscannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfallamounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts midto late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approachingcold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/criticalthresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier andfarther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and SouthCarolina, additional risk areas may become necessary...Nauslar.. 04/04/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Apr 4, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html', description:'SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
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Day 1 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0259 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025Valid 042000Z - 051200Z...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARKLATEX TOSOUTHEAST MISSOURI......SUMMARY...Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texasacross the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging windswill be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeastMissouri, including potential for strong to potentially intensetornadoes....20z Update...Morning and early afternoon observations show the frontal zonegradually expanding north/northwest from the ArkLaTex to the mid MSand lower OH Valleys. As strong mid-level flow overlaps with thedestabilizing air mass, several clusters of severe thunderstormsappear are ongoing and are likely to continue, with a risk for allhazards into tonight. Minor changes were made to the northern end ofthe outlook area, in accordance with the latestobservations/guidance....ArkLaTex...The primary surface-based convective band, forming along and east ofthe surface front from northeast TX to southern AR should continueintensify with several supercells likely emerging and trackingthrough the MDT Risk Corridor. Additional, more isolated storms arepossible within a pre-frontal confluence axis and across the warmsector this afternoon. The 18z SHV and LZK soundings show veryfavorable thermodynamic profiles, with considerable low-levelhodograph curvature (ESRH 330-500 m2/s2) and deep-layer shearsupportive for intense supercells. With observed and forecast STP of5+, several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense appearlikely into this evening. The primary limiting factor for higherprobabilities continues to be the more meridional and front parallelflow near the baroclinic zone. The numerous storm interactionsshould favor upscale growth as a QLCS gradually emerges later thisafternoon/evening....Lower OH and TN valley...Weak convective development within the broader warm sector has beennoted early this afternoon across parts of TN and southern KY.Strong diurnal heating amid 70s F surface dewpoints and steeplow-level lapse rates may allow these storms to slowly intensifythrough the afternoon. Displaced from the deeper ascent near thefront, storm coverage and organization are expected to be somewhatless than farther southwest. Still, 40+ kt of effective shear withmodestly large clockwise curved hodographs suggests some potentialfor supercellular activity, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail,and a couple tornadoes.The greater severe concern is expected later tonight as upscalegrowth from the convection over the MS Valley moves eastward. A QLCSwith embedded supercellular elements appears likely across parts ofwestern KY and TN into central KY and southern OH. Damaging gustsand tornadoes are expected. Given the robust destabilization nowongoing south of the warm front, have opted to expand the SLGT andthe ENH farther east across KY and TN for a damaging wind andtornado threat....West TX...Model guidance continues to show a broad area of elevated convectiondeveloping after dark. Significant hail and some damaging winds arepossible with elevated supercells tracking north from the EdwardsPlateau toward the Red River tonight...Lyons.. 04/04/2025.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight...An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowlyeastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastwardover the southern Plains.  Additionally, large-scale ascent will beenhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over theupper Midwest.  At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected tomove northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weakwave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest ARthis afternoon and southeast MO tonight.  The depth of the cool airat LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supportsnorthward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon.Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in placewith low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse ratesof 7.5-8.5 C/km.  Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute toMLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition byearly-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected bothalong the surface front and in the open warm sector.  Stormdevelopment will be most concentrated along the front where ascentwill be focused and training storms are likely.  More isolatedstorms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from ARinto western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon.  Deep-layer verticalshear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, withsubstantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near orabove 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front inAR).  Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moistenvironment in the low levels, supercells will be capable ofproducing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into thisevening in the Moderate risk area.  Otherwise, very large hail tobaseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with thesupercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along thebaroclinic zone.  North of the front, organized storms will becapable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts....Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight...Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevatedthunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the EdwardsPlateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK.  The stormenvironment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with verylarge hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damagingwinds to the surface.
Read more' }, { title:'SPC Apr 4, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook', link:'https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html', description:'SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025Valid 061200Z - 071200Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OFTHE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS......SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sundayacross parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginallysevere wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southernAppalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic....Synopsis...A mid-level jet streak will shift east from the ArkLaTex to theAppalachians during the day Sunday with some amplification of thebroader scale mid-level trough by the end of the period. A surfacefront will also shift east through the period with a weak surfacelow forecast to move along this boundary from MS/AL Sunday morningto the Carolinas by Sunday night. A moist airmass will be in placeahead of this front which should result in some severe weatherthreat from southeast Mississippi to Georgia and the FloridaPanhandle. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of theperiod from eastern Tennessee to southeast Louisiana. Instabilityshould be relatively weak ahead of this line Sunday morning exceptfor where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints remain. This will initiallybe from central Alabama southward and perhaps expanding into partsof northern Georgia during the afternoon. Expansive cloudcover in amoist/weak lapse rate environment should limit additionaldestabilization. However, there should be sufficient instability formaintaining ongoing convection, potentially with some embeddedsupercells. Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be theprimary threat. ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...A large MCS will likely be ongoing west of the Appalachians at thebeginning of the period. The combination of the terrain, and a drierairmass along and east of the Appalachians will likely result inthis line of storms weakening on Sunday morning. Some moistening andat least marginal heating through the cloud cover could result insome weak destabilization east of the Appalachians. A few strong toisolated severe storms will be possible from the Carolinas into theMid-Atlantic as a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region andthe low-level jet intensifies...Bentley.. 04/04/2025
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